Divided We Stand

Steve Bannon and I have something in common. No, I’m not in a power struggle with Trump. We both believe in the cyclical nature of history. As a New York-based strategist tasked with uncovering macro cultural trends, technology shifts and generational theory, I’m knee deep in synthesizing how our world is dramatically changing. I strive to understand our current reality in the context of history and human nature. Okay, mostly I wonder if I should buy a piece of land upstate and start building a bunker. Or join Maple Match. I strongly believe that technology doesn’t change our human nature. It only gives us new tools to act in ways that perhaps, no one from our generation has acted before. Does the lack of forgiveness on Twitter replicate the confining culture of a small, pre-industrial village that Nathaniel Hawthorne illustrated so well in the Scarlet Letter? With my robust digital presence, I can hand someone a business card with only my name, just like my great grandmother back in the early 1900s. With the ability to connect with others, regardless of geography, I can seek my unique tribe, call it a village with no natural boundaries, instead of being part of the masses. So if we look at history to understand our future, where are we headed?

Steve Bannon is obsessed with a very specific theory around the cyclical nature of history; The Fourth Turning. The theory is polarizing along with every other belief that explains this moment in history.

Some CliffsNotes: The Fourth Turning is a belief that there are four cycles to history, call it generations, that make up an 80 year lifespan. These theorists and amateur historians, William Strauss and Neil Howe, were the authors that coined, wait for it, Millennials. They believed that the generations can be described in this order:

• A High — Institutions are strong and individualism is weak.
• Awakening — Institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy
• Unraveling — institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing.
• Crisis — An era of destruction, often involving war, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the national’s survival.

Guess which cycle we’re in?

I’m in a unique position now, having moved from Bernie-saturated Seattle nearly a year ago, having lived there briefly, a homogeneous, liberal city full of male engineers — average age 25–35, who are dictating the future with their code in everything from Amazon to Microsoft. I now work closely with commercial real estate, an industry that is predominantly white, upper-class, where relationships are just as likely to be made by a group of men on the golf course as they are at the latest conference.

White Bernie Supporters in Seattle. Lots of Bernie supporters.

I’ve been criticized as a Hillary supporter in Seattle and assumed my views were anti-Presidential while in the halls of Trump supporters before I could even finish my sentence. And I’ve been guilty of stirring the same debate and making assumptions with Bernie or Trump supporters as well.

In short, we Americans are struggling to find common ground in a political system that forces us to take sides. What if economic policy, the relationship between federal and state government, social policy, military and foreign policy are more complex than a two party system allows? According to the Bookings Institute, “In 2016, young adults were more likely to identify as liberals but were less likely to identify as Democrats. Similarly, while young Trump voters were characterized by their energetic support for the Republican candidate, the growth of young people identifying as Republican has remained static.”

The political system is broken and we need a new alternative.

While Hillary didn’t win the White House, her loss may have inspired an even greater revolution. Women everywhere are banning together, determined to disrupt the established political institution that favors men in power. In parallel, gender, race and other identities continue to assert their voices, seeking representation and respect in an America that has favored the majority. Even the institution of gender has been flipped on its head with transgender demanding a seat at the table.

We’re in a crisis period. The old values of our institutions are being replaced with new ones and this is evident in every aspect of society. The Edelman Trust Barometer, a yearly study on trust around the world from the well-renowned PR firm, sums this up in their 2017 finding that “trust is in crisis around the world.” The general population’s trust in all four key institutions — business, government, NGOs, and media — declined broadly, a phenomenon not reported since Edelman began tracking trust in 2012.

Equal in its power to divide and unite, mainstream religion is also facing a decline.

Christianity, the religion our forefathers and dominating religion of our country, has seen a decline over the last few years. Studies have found that in Western countries, the level of religious affiliation declines with each generation. In fact, “ an increasing proportion of Americans say that they have no religion.” While traditional religion is on the decline, emerging, more niche alternatives like yoga and Crossfit are on the rise, filling the void for those needing a spiritual community.

The impact of institutions being torn down and rebuilt are most evident within business. The entire suite of consumer products have experienced a “disruption.” From taxis and the auto industry to the retail and even real estate; every established player has a young upstart taking market share and sometimes obliterating the established institution. The advent of design-thinking, user-centricity, transparency and other factors brought through the “digital age,” gives consumers power over business institutions. These so-called Millennial values, are dramatically replacing long-dominating ways of doing business. The entry of Uber into the NYC market has destroyed an industry as old as cars themselves with the value of taxi medallions plummeting. And you can’t skim the business section of a newspaper without spotting an article about the death of retail through the closing of Sears or Macy’s partially brought on by the user-centric behemoth that is Amazon. Niche brands like Cuyana, well-curated stores like The New Stand and brands that tackle an entire user-experience around a particular journey like Casper’ s devotion to perfecting sleep, are finding growth among the supposed rubble of retail. The old, one-sized fits all model of blandly differentiated department stores and homogeneous brands are dropping like fast fashion.

A pilgrimage to the mecca or insider tribal knowledge?

There’s the institution of America itself that’s in a crisis. America was founded on the ideals of diversity, inclusivity and equality as a place where anyone could obtain the American Dream. But over the last few decades, we’ve seen upward mobility on the decline, with income inequality on the rise. The middle class may no longer be an economic majority in the U.S. according to a recent report by the Pew Research Center. With such a growing divide, how can we empathize with experiences that are foreign to us; the scarcity mindset of scrimping and saving to get out of poverty or the pain of taxes taken from our paycheck after consecutive 80 hour workweeks? With such a huge divide, what does it mean to be quintessentially American? The days of a 30m networked television sitcoms that just about anyone could relate to, and laugh with, are as antiquated as network television itself.

Now, more than ever, we have the tools to find our unique tribe, whether that’s moving to a city that reflects our values or connecting with like-minded online communities. But is this dividing us more than uniting us? Making us more tribal? More attuned to the needs of our tribe while deaf to the needs of those who don’t share our values? While social media has many benefits, it has also created entirely new problems. Like a small, pre-industrial village square, our social media channels have become an echo-chamber of likeminded beliefs. Raising questions that are an alternative perspectives to our tribe comes with the risk of being excommunicated or assaulted with comments. Try telling a your ultra liberal friends that the New York Times is biased or that we should hear out what Republicans have to say. The opposite can be said for Republican groups. Try putting yourselves in the shoes of a blue collar worker or in the head of someone born into a pressure-filled, trust fund family business. The more polarized our views and experiences, the harder it is to connect. The further polarized our views, the less the average American has in common with institutional values.

As Boomers retire and exit the workforce and younger generations including Gen X and Millennial take over power, the divide will grow deeper. A generation that has come to value transparency, user-centricity, purposeful living, and diversity is headed for a collision with the old guard. When will the apex of the crisis hit?

Bannon sees Trump as the catalyst for ushering in a new era. He sees that new era as bringing in the antithesis to the liberal elite. I believe Trump is the catalyst, not in the way that Bannon envisions him as a savior. It his complete disregard for the truth, a history of self-serving and insular behavior that will push America to the breaking point. In the Fourth Turning, the authors predict that a great global crisis will force us to all work together and usher in a new era of peace, stability and an era where individualism is weak but institutions strong. Between climate change and religious extremism, both consequences of valuing the individual tribal needs over mass societies, we are clearly headed for a disaster.

I don’t know where our country is headed, or even the world for that matter, but I do hope that each and every one of us remembers we are citizens of a larger world. Our actions impact others. It is only by stepping out of our tribe and continuing to ask ourselves and each other — what unites us?

Originally published at https://medium.com on July 4, 2017.